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The Dilemma of Western UP

The elections in Uttar Pradesh are scheduled to be held in seven phases starting from February 10. The results of the same will be declared on March 10.

“Adityanath, who is leading the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, is eyeing a comeback and has ruled out any challenge to the party,” Hindustan Times reported.

The opinion poll has predicted BJPs victory in the upcoming UP elections. However, the alliance sealed by Rashtriya Lok Dal with Samajwadi Party could be a hurdle for the ruling party in western UP.

The BJP according to the polls released, is winning the 2022 elections in UP but the key issue is to predict if the farmers are going to vote based on what has happened due to farmer law or the local candidates will be able to dominate the voting choices.

The possibility of Jat vote bank to support SP in areas where they have fielded Muslim candidates is quite less. To balance this RLD has also given tickets to Muslim candidates. In total the alliance has given tickets to 10 Muslims and 7 Jats out of 36 seats available.

The focusing on the Jat-Muslim collision of SP-RLD could become a reason for counter-polarisation especially when BJP is pitching Grand Lord Krishna temple in places like Mathura.

Western UP has put both the parties(BJP & SP) in a spot where they are taking all the possible steps which could help them in establishing their rule. On one hand, BJP has been working day and night to contain the damage in Western UP. Yogi’s BJP has made a strategy where

  • They are micromanaging non-dominant caste groups

  • Trying to woo Gujjars by honouring Mihir Bhoj

  • Holding programs to spark Dalits in their favour.

Similarly, SP-RLD has been working on

  • Consolidation of Jat-Muslim vote bank

  • Pleasing farm union leaders such as Rakesh Tikait

  • Getting Brahmin votes by giving tickets to unhappy Brahmin

  • Bringing Samajwadis and Ambedkarites Together.

Now all eyes are waiting for the election and the results, to see if the Jats who were backing BJP in the last three polls will support them? Will SP-RLD be successful in creating the Jat-Muslim alliance? Will the farmers’ anger cause the shift in the political power of western Up?

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